AGR Dues Case: What Next, will FII selling continue in Indian Markets?

Hello Investor!

The Supreme Court of India has delivered its final verdict on the long-standing Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) dues dispute, rejecting pleas from telecom giants Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel for a reassessment of their dues. This decision marks a crucial turning point for the Indian telecom industry, as it solidifies the government's stance on AGR calculations and leaves these companies grappling with massive financial liabilities.

But before we dive into today’s updates

If you find the contents of this email useful, subscribe now & share with your friends.

Today’s Market Menu

• Focal Point: AGR Dues Case Explained

• Markets

• Everything else you need to know today

• Tutorial: Master market moves with Bollinger Bands

• Supercharge your Investing Skills

• Management Speaks: Varun Beverages, JK Tyres & Time Technoplast

• Stock Screener to up your game

FOCAL POINT

AGR Dues SC Ruling: Aftermath – What’s next for India’s telecom industry?

In a landmark decision, India's Supreme Court has dismissed the pleas of telecom giants Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel to recalculate their Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) dues. This verdict solidifies the government's stance on AGR calculations, encompassing both core and non-core revenues. As a result, Vodafone Idea faces liabilities amounting to approximately ₹2.27 trillion, intensifying concerns over its financial viability. The ruling has sent shockwaves through the telecom industry, with Vodafone Idea's shares plummeting by 5.3% and Indus Towers experiencing a 4% decline. This development underscores the critical need for strategic financial planning and potential government intervention to stabilize the sector.

✅The Verdict

▪️The Supreme Court dismissed petitions filed by Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel seeking a reassessment of their AGR dues.

▪️The ruling upholds the Department of Telecommunications’ (DoT) demand, which calculates AGR dues based on both core (telecom-related) and non-core (other revenues).

▪️Vodafone Idea’s total outstanding AGR dues stand at a staggering ₹2.27 trillion, raising concerns about the company's financial survival.

▪️The decision comes after multiple legal battles, where telecom companies argued that errors in AGR calculations had led to inflated dues.

✅Impact on Vodafone Idea & Airtel

▪️Vodafone Idea Faces Financial Crisis: With heavy debt and cash flow constraints, this ruling severely impacts Vodafone Idea’s survival prospects. The company has been struggling to raise funds for 5G expansion, and this additional burden worsens its financial health.

▪️Stock Market Reaction: Following the verdict, Vodafone Idea’s shares plunged by 5.3%, while Indus Towers, a major telecom infrastructure provider, witnessed a 4% decline in its stock price.

▪️Airtel’s Position: While Airtel is also affected, it is in a better financial position compared to Vodafone Idea and is expected to manage the impact more effectively.

✅Impact on the Telecom Sector

▪️Increased Government Pressure: The verdict reinforces the government’s stance on AGR dues, making it unlikely that any relief will be provided to struggling telecom players.

▪️Potential Consolidation: With Vodafone Idea’s financial troubles deepening, the possibility of a duopoly between Reliance Jio and Airtel looms large.

▪️Foreign Investment Concerns: Investors may hesitate to fund companies in a regulatory environment where policy disputes lead to severe financial burdens.

▪️Possible Government Intervention: Given Vodafone Idea’s critical role in the telecom ecosystem, the government may explore alternative measures, such as relief packages or extended payment timelines.

The Supreme Court’s final ruling on AGR dues is a game-changer for the telecom sector, particularly for Vodafone Idea, which is now in dire need of financial restructuring. The decision underscores the importance of regulatory clarity in high-stakes industries and could lead to further changes in India’s telecom landscape.

_{*The names of the stocks mentioned are for informational & indicative purposes and do not constitute buy/sell recommendations}

MARKETS

NIFTY50 opened with a gap down, with focus on the key support level at 22750. The market experienced significant fluctuations, with the day's low at 22725 being a critical point for potential further declines if breached. Resistance levels were identified around 23000, where a close above could lead to a short covering rally. The sentiment was generally cautious, with outlook against new short positions due to unfavorable risk-reward ratios. There is possibility of a bear trap if Nifty dipped below 22800, suggesting a potential for a reversal if this level held.

_{Closing figures as on 17.02.25 (3.30pm IST)}

🔎 Stocks in Focus

▪️Mahindra and Mahindra (M&M): Despite securing 30,179 bookings for its electric SUVs, XEV 9e and BE 6, on February 14, M&M's shares fell by 4% to ₹2,830.35. Global brokerage Morgan Stanley maintained an 'overweight' rating, highlighting an impressive order book nearing $1 billion.

▪️Paytm: The company's shares rose over 1% to ₹733.65 after its subsidiary acquired a 25% stake in Seven Technology.

▪️Glenmark Pharmaceuticals: Following largely in-line Q3 results, shares increased by more than 4% to ₹1,376.60.

▪️PVR Inox: Shares declined over 1% to ₹1,004, even as the film "Chhaava" grossed over ₹100 crore in three days.

▪️Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL): The company received a Letter of Intent from Singareni Collieries Company Limited for an EPC package of the 1x800 MW Singareni Stage-II project, valued at approximately ₹6,700 crore.

▪️Senco Gold: Shares fell over 9% to ₹324.85 following weak operational performance in the December quarter.

NIFTY 500 Heatmap: Some Green Shoots?

Institutional Action

_{Provisional Figures (Rs. in Crores)}

FROM THE FRONTIER

Everything else you need to know today 

🌞Resurgence: Japanese firms are increasingly investing in India to reduce reliance on China, driven by supply chain diversification and government incentives. With India now a top destination for Japanese FDI, businesses are tapping into its vast market and growing startup ecosystem.

🔓Breakthrough: In a significant development announced during Aero India 2025, Cyient DLM has been awarded a long-term contract by Thales to manufacture high-reliability Printed Circuit Board Assemblies (PCBAs) for next-generation flight avionics systems.

🥇Triumph: Welspun Corp Limited has announced new orders worth approximately ₹3,000 crore in the USA, including two significant contracts for Helical Submerged Arc Welded (HSAW) pipes and additional orders for High-Frequency Induction Welded (HFIW) pipes. These coated pipes are primarily designated for natural gas pipeline projects, with execution slated for fiscal years 2026 and 2027.

💹Listing: Ajax Engineering's shares listed at ₹576 on the NSE, an 8.4% discount to the issue price of ₹629. Despite the initial dip, the stock rebounded, closing at ₹592 (-5.87%), with a market capitalization of ₹7185 crore. The IPO, an offer-for-sale of 2.02 crore shares totaling ₹1,269.35 crore, was subscribed 6.45 times during its bidding period.

💰SAST

✅Commitment: RAN Ventures Private Limited, part of the promoter group of Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services Limited, acquired an additional 115,000 equity shares through open market transactions. This purchase raises RAN Ventures' holding from 44.03% to 44.12%.

✅Reinforcement: Equilibrated Venture Cflow Pvt. Ltd., a promoter entity of Paisalo Digital Limited, has pledged an additional 3 million shares (0.33% of total share capital) to IIFL Finance Limited on February 13, 2025, to maintain security margins. This action increases their total encumbered shares to approximately 72.81% of their holdings, equating to 11.33% of Paisalo's total share capital.

ONEZERO-F ACADEMY

Master market moves with Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands, introduced by John Bollinger in the 1980s, have become one of the most widely used technical analysis tools in trading. These bands help traders assess market volatility, spot potential breakouts, and identify overbought or oversold conditions. By dynamically adjusting to price movements, Bollinger Bands provide valuable insights into market trends across different timeframes and asset classes, including stocks, forex, and cryptocurrencies.

Let us explore why Bollinger Bands are so popular and how traders use them effectively.

✅What Are Bollinger Bands?

Bollinger Bands consist of three lines plotted over a price chart:

• Middle Band: A Simple Moving Average (SMA), typically set at 20 periods.

• Upper Band: Plotted at two standard deviations above the SMA.

• Lower Band: Plotted at two standard deviations below the SMA.

The bands automatically expand and contract based on market volatility, making them a flexible tool for traders.

✅Why Bollinger Bands Are Popular

1. Measures Market Volatility

• When volatility increases, the bands widen; when volatility decreases, they contract.

• This helps traders assess whether a market is experiencing high or low price fluctuations.

2. Identifies Overbought and Oversold Conditions

• Prices near the upper band indicate overbought conditions, signaling a potential reversal or pullback.

• Prices near the lower band suggest oversold conditions, indicating a possible upward bounce.

3. Helps Spot Potential Breakouts

• A sudden band expansion after a period of contraction (low volatility) often signals a strong price movement ahead.

• This is known as the Bollinger Band Squeeze, a popular setup among traders looking for breakout opportunities.

4. Works in All Market Conditions

• Trending Markets: Traders use Bollinger Bands to ride trends, looking for bounces off the middle band.

• Range-Bound Markets: The bands act as dynamic support and resistance levels for trading reversals.

5. Used Across Multiple Asset Classes

• Bollinger Bands work effectively in stocks, forex, commodities, and cryptocurrencies.

• Their adaptability makes them useful for day traders, swing traders, and long-term investors.

Bollinger Bands remain a favorite tool for traders due to their ability to measure volatility, identify trade opportunities, and adapt to different market conditions. By understanding how they work, traders can enhance their strategies and make informed decisions.

SUPERCHARGE YOUR INVESTING SKILLS

Peter Lynch 1994 Lecture

MANAGEMENT SPEAKS

Management Call Highlights

✅Varun Beverages: The company saw 24.7% revenue growth in 2024, expanding into South Africa, DRC, and new PepsiCo markets. With higher sales volumes, a debt-free status, and aggressive CAPEX plans, VBL is strengthening its global presence while focusing on energy drinks and sustainability initiatives.

✅JK Tyres: In Q3 FY2024-25, JK Tyre & Industries reported a 2% increase in consolidated net revenues, reaching ₹3,729 crore, driven by robust replacement demand. The operating profit surged by 60%, amounting to ₹465 crore, with margins expanding by 450 basis points. The company also improved its net debt-to-equity ratio to 1.16x, down from 1.29x in March 2023.

✅Time Technoplast: The company reported a 6% year-over-year increase in quarterly revenue, totaling ₹128 crore. For the nine-month period, revenue reached ₹399 crore, marking an 11.7% growth compared to the same period last year. Despite challenges such as a decline in HDPE prices—from ₹112 per kg to ₹99 per kg—and supply chain disruptions, the company expanded its customer base from 400 to over 500 clients.

STOCK SCREENER TO UP YOUR GAME

Shortlist Stocks Below Intrinsic Value

By Navendu

Current price < Graham Number AND
Sales growth >10% AND
Profit growth >10% AND
Return on equity > 10%  and
Debt to equity <1.1 and 
Current price >20

SOCIAL MEDIA LESSONS

That is too Direct!

Your Opinion Matters!

Got more feedback or just want to get in touch? Reply to this email and we’ll get back to you.

Thanks for reading.

Until tomorrow!

Mohit & the OneZero-F team

OneZero-F Analytics is SEBI registered Research Entity in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 with SEBI Research Analyst No: INH000013837. For more details, Click Here.

Click Here for Other DISCLAIMERS & DISCLOSURES